Friday, September 23, 2011

Romney Has 10-Point Lead vs. Perry on Intrade

In the last several weeks, Romney's odds on Intrade of being the Republican nominee for president have surged to an all-time high of 42.2% while Perry's odds have fallen to 32.4%, giving Romney almost a ten-point advantage.  That reverses a 8.4% gap in favor of Perry earlier in the month.  I guess that means Romney won the debate last night?  

25 Comments:

At 9/23/2011 8:33 AM, Blogger Larry G said...

it means the more people get to know Perry - the less they like him.

he's done. he was a poser.

 
At 9/23/2011 9:35 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

while i like many of perry's ideas, he does seem shrill and dogmatic on a number of social issues.

i was really ready to like him, but his intense religious leanings worry me as does his bizarre labeling of bernanke as "treasonous".

i could have gone along with wrong or ruinous to describe helicopter ben, but treasonous seemed a bit of a reach and not the sort of loose cannon speech we need from a president.

i hope christie throws his hat in the ring.

can't say i'm a big fan of romney either.

 
At 9/23/2011 9:57 AM, Blogger geoih said...

Romney, Perry, or Obama? Kind of like picking which way to die. Does it really make any difference?

 
At 9/23/2011 11:33 AM, Blogger AIG said...

"he does seem shrill and dogmatic on a number of social issues. i was really ready to like him, but his intense religious leanings worry me "

Its what the Tea Party has, unfortunately, boiled down to.

Basically what we're going to be voting on is whether we want to continue with Obama, or go back to GWB II

 
At 9/23/2011 11:41 AM, Blogger Larry G said...

" Basically what we're going to be voting on is whether we want to continue with Obama, or go back to GWB II "

friendly amendment - "...without brains"...

 
At 9/23/2011 12:03 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

after watching Perry last night, I seriously question the instincts of Texas voters...

I'll say something positive about Perry - and that is he's probably better without having "handlers" or at least the ones he has now.

it's pretty clear that his "handlers" are ham-handed... and are, in my view, "over-handling" him.

his basic instincts are part of who he is and his handlers have messed that up...

Perry either needs to get out or fire his handlers....

 
At 9/23/2011 12:23 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Refrigerator Perry is more thoughtful than Rick "Pretty Boy" Perry.

Perry is a bilious knave, the vile excretum from the southern portal of Texas.

Romney is smart and thoughtful, if a poor campaigner. So far, he has my vote.

 
At 9/23/2011 1:32 PM, Blogger Don said...

While Romney is no great shakes at much of anything, he at least has more of an understanding of business and economics than the entire Obama administration put together. Perry would likely be the kind of president that would leave you wondering if the US should continue to exist.

Regards, Don

 
At 9/23/2011 3:01 PM, Blogger Paul said...

I've been really disappointed in Perry's debate performance, but his ability to think on his feet and articulate his principles is different from actually governing. His performance in Texas speaks for itself, especially in contrast with Obama's ruinous record.

That said, superficial qualities seem to be the most important weapon in a candidate's arsenal. Hence, the moron we elected President in 2008.

 
At 9/23/2011 3:03 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"Romney is smart and thoughtful, if a poor campaigner. So far, he has my vote."

I wish Intrade would take odds on whether Benji ends up pulling the lever for his boyfriend again in 2012.

 
At 9/23/2011 3:06 PM, Blogger Paul said...

Larry,

"after watching Perry last night, I seriously question the instincts of Texas voters..."

You voted for Obama. You're not exactly in a position to be judging anyone.

 
At 9/23/2011 3:32 PM, Blogger Bobby Caygeon said...

Not going to matter anyway. Perry/Romney. Whatever. Either will completely dismantle Obama in 2012, if he even runs by then.

Now, we will see just how screwed we are as a country. The R's will own the Presidency, the Senate, and Congress. They can act as fiscal conservatives and deliver us from this unholy liberal mess or we are crap out of luck as country.

 
At 9/23/2011 3:48 PM, OpenID Sprewell said...

I watched the debate online on foxnews.com, the first and likely last Republican debate I'll watch, as I don't much care for the TV delivery and usually just read about their plans. However, it was eye-opening to finally see how they come across in person and I must say, I was pleasantly surprised. Every candidate on stage came off well to me, even guys like Gingrich or Santorum who I have never cared for. While I have big disagreements with Santorum or others on social issues, I would vote for any one of them over Obama, because the economic gulf is just huge.

That said, here's my analysis of who's likely to win. Gary Johnson represents me the best, he's the one I want to vote for, but he just looks too sallow on TV, no shot in an election. Santorum and Gingrich know they have no shot, they've burned too many bridges in the past. Ron Paul is the cranky old man: even though he gets the biggest applause sometimes, that never works in a general election, look at Dole or to a lesser extent McCain.

Perry never came off well to me until I finally saw him in person last night, but he's hamstrung by Bush preceding him from Texas and his disastrous flub on the subsidized tuition for illegals issue. Romney comes across as the best for TV and thus for a general election, a likable guy who says mostly the right things, if you can ignore his constant flip-flopping. I don't think the guy has any core, he will say almost anything to get elected. Bachmann may be the smartest one up there, but she's too religious for America and has a troubling history of factual flubs. All politicians lie incessantly, but they usually try to limit it to flip-flops on their own positions or commonly accepted lies, not the facts.

Cain is fun and has some good issues, but is almost too jocular. I was really surprised by Huntsman, people always dismiss him but he came across well. I could see him taking on Romney for the nomination, particularly if the anti-Romney vote coalesces around him, as the only candidate TV-friendly enough to take Romney out. He's already risen to a solid fourth place in New Hampshire, that's where he'd have to start making his stand against Mitt. As always, the Republicans are looking for a nominee who's conservative enough but can beat the Democrats, that's Romney or Huntsman. Four years ago, I seriously considered putting up $100 on McCain on Intrade, when his odds were at 10:1 going into the NH primary, because I knew the front-runner Giuliani was a joke who'd never win. Romney is stronger but I think Huntsman could repeat that surge if he plays his cards right.

 
At 9/23/2011 3:49 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

" "after watching Perry last night, I seriously question the instincts of Texas voters..."

You voted for Obama. You're not exactly in a position to be judging anyone. "

only after they derailed Romney and ran another neo-con....

I would have voted for Romney then and now...

Romney is conservative without being a run wing nut...or neocon

 
At 9/23/2011 3:52 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

how can Perry call SS a "ponzi" scheme at the same time he is giving free tuition to illegals..

talk about a "scam"...

;-0

 
At 9/23/2011 3:54 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"Romney is conservative without being a run wing nut...or neocon"

Yeah, that Romneycare is the epitome of conservatism. Romney is a weasel, he has demonstrated he will say anything to get elected.

 
At 9/23/2011 4:00 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"how can Perry call SS a "ponzi" scheme at the same time he is giving free tuition to illegals.."

Easy, he isn't. Texas gives in state tuition to anyone, including illegals, who reside in Texas for at least 3 yrs.

 
At 9/23/2011 4:29 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

Texas gives in state tuition to anyone, including illegals,

and Perry supports this ? and at the same time he calls SS a scam?

ha ha ha ha...

lord...

 
At 9/23/2011 4:39 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

One of the Democratic party’s leading pollsters released a survey of 60 Republican-held battleground districts today painting an ominous picture for Congressional Democrats in 2012. The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they did in the 2010 midterms, being dragged down by an unpopular president who would lose to both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. …

Instead of an overall anti-incumbent sentiment impacting members of both parties, voters are taking more of their anger out on Democrats. ...

Voters in these districts said they were more supportive of Republicans than they were during the 2010 midterms, when 48 percent said they backed the Republican candidate and 42 percent said they backed the Democrat. (Republicans won 55 percent of the overall vote in these 60 battleground districts, while Democrats took 43 percent.) In 2010, Republicans netted 63 House seats – their best showing since 1948.

Dem Poll: Obama Dragging Down His Own Party, National Journal

 
At 9/23/2011 4:46 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

that's not surprising given the circumstances.

the people who will decide this election are independents not the bases(s).

that's why it is so important that the Republican NOT nominate a YAHOO!

Romney would have won last time if the GOP could have resisted the urge to run a geezer neo-con.

 
At 9/23/2011 4:48 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"..and Perry supports this ? and at the same time he calls SS a scam?"

Instate tuition and SS are entirely unrelated subjects.

 
At 9/23/2011 4:51 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"Romney would have won last time if the GOP could have resisted the urge to run a geezer neo-con."

Not a chance. The coronation of Obama,the media's slobbering love affair with him, made our country look like some banana republic. I have never seen such hype. Nobody could have beaten him in '08.

 
At 9/23/2011 7:46 PM, Blogger kleht said...

The latest Intrade reading:

Romney has a 23-point lead vs. Perry.

 
At 9/23/2011 7:56 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

wasn't Perry up by 10-15 last week?

 
At 9/23/2011 9:11 PM, Blogger kleht said...

wasn't Perry up by 10-15 last week?

I believe he was up by 10-15, but I'm not sure when.

 

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