Saturday, August 13, 2011

Intrade Odds for Obama's Re-Election Below 50%

Intrade odds for Obama's 2012 re-election fell below 50% today for the first time (see chart).

11 Comments:

At 8/13/2011 9:33 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

It seems, U.S. producers and consumers are so uncertain whether the government restructuring of the economy will move forward or reverse course, after the big GOP win in 2010 and a possible big GOP win in 2012, that they are moving forward slowly or waiting it out.

 
At 8/13/2011 9:47 AM, Blogger Tom said...

Since FDR in 1944 only one Democrat president has been re-elected, Bill Clinton. All Democrat presidents commit socialism, and thus political suicide. Clinton attempted socialism with HilaryCare but was thwarted.
Clinton was rescued by Gingrich et al who took over Congress and forced a nearly-balanced budget. Obama is just the latest in a long line of socialists masquerading as Democrats. He will meet the same rejection by the voters as other Democrat presidents.

 
At 8/13/2011 10:23 AM, Blogger MaggotAtBroad&Wall said...

Tom:

What frightens me is academia, particularly liberal arts colleges and universities, decided a long time ago to include not only the basics of traditional education --objective knowledge -- such as the hard sciences, math, literature, music, language, etc. but also the "soft sciences" which essentially derived from the Frankfurt School adherents. All those grievance courses like Women's Studies, Ethnic Studies, sociology, etc. are nothing more than leftist indoctrination factories. We've now had several generations of students who have been taught that Western Civilization and capitalism is evil. Then on the other extreme, we have retirees who are so dependent on government entitlements that any talk at all about reforming the unsustainable nature of the programs freaks the elderly out who then express that fear in the voting booth.

Never before have we had, on the one had, so many who have been privileged enough to be college educated who are taught to hate capitalism and free enterprise because it leads to unequal outcomes, to on the other hand a fast growing elderly population who are dependent on the socialist programs to survive. And to top it off, 51% don't pay any income tax.

As Norm Thomas, 6 time candidate for president on the Socialist Party and grandfather of Evan Thomas said, "the American people will never vote for socialism, but under the name of liberalism they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program".

I'd say we're there.

 
At 8/13/2011 10:52 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Ronald Reagan earned a BA degree in 1932, which is equal to a Ph.D today.

Ronald Reagan on Franklin Roosevelt: The Significance of Style
08/20/08

Reagan was a New Deal Democrat. He joked that he had probably become a Democrat by birth, given that his father, Jack, was so devoted to the Democratic Party. The younger Reagan cast his first presidential vote in 1932 for Franklin Roosevelt, and did so again in the succeeding three presidential contests.

His faith in FDR remained undimmed even after World War II, when he called himself “a New Dealer to the core.”

He summarized his views in this way: “I thought government could solve all our postwar problems just as it had ended the Depression and won the war. I didn’t trust big business. I thought government, not private companies, should own our big public utilities; if there wasn’t enough housing to shelter the American people, I thought government should build it; if we needed better medical care, the answer was socialized medicine.”

When his brother, Moon, became a Republican and argued with his sibling, the younger Reagan concluded “he was just spouting Republican propaganda.”

 
At 8/13/2011 12:14 PM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

May the best mudslinger win.

 
At 8/13/2011 1:33 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

I guess most people anticipate another GOP candidate will enter the field, other than lulus they have foisted upon us so far.

 
At 8/13/2011 2:00 PM, Blogger MattW said...

It's because of the economy that his odds are decreasing. I'm not sure how intrade works exactly, but it seems to me more of a if-the-election-were-held-today kinda thing. I still think if the economy is even flat next summer/fall then Obama is a shoe-in. Only if growth continues decreasing is it an open question.

 
At 8/13/2011 8:49 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

A plausible forecast from a Dr Doom - Recessions in the U.S. and China:

A Gary Shilling, bachelor’s degree in physics, magna cum laude, from Amherst College, master’s degree and doctorate in economics at Stanford University.

Article excerpts Jun to Aug 2011

The U.S. Economy:

“I’m predicting another recession next year (2012).”

The economy, he says, is like a four-cylinder engine, and a recovery usually requires all four to be firing.

They are consumer spending, employment, housing and the reversal of the inventory cycle.

Shilling thinks only the last is really recovering.

A further 20% decline in home prices would raise the percentage of homes worth less than the value of their mortgages to a stunning 40% (Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price index, has a similar prediction).

If this happens, “you know what that will do to consumer spending,” said Shilling. “That’s a recession — an easy forecast.”

The Obama administration’s own attempt to “fix” the housing market — the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) — was, in Shilling’s words, “a miserable failure.”

As for investing, Shilling has returned to an old favorite (as of June 24, 2011): the 30-year Treasury bond, which is currently yielding around 4.21%. “I think they’re going to 3%,” he said. “I think [the 10-year is] going to 2%.”

I hesitate to second guess him on housing, where his track record has been stellar.

China's economy-housing bubble-commodities bubble:

The hard landing that I foresee for China will probably prick the global commodity bubble, which is already showing signs of topping out.

Our own Fed, using much more sophisticated policy tools, has tried to slow an overheating U.S. economy 12 times in the post-World War II era. Eleven of those attempts failed and resulted in recessions.

What odds do you give the Chinese, who need to maintain an 8% GDP growth rate in order to employ new job entrants?

Speculation by multiple-home owners has pushed new apartment prices in Beijing from 32 times average aftertax income in 2006 to a ridiculous 57 times.

I’ve studied many bubbles over the years, and concentrated on predicting their demises.

Commodities show every sign of being in one.

 
At 8/14/2011 7:46 PM, Blogger juandos said...

From Peak Trader: “I’m predicting another recession next year (2012).”...

Hmmm, that seems to be a developing theme that is becoming common...

Tom Laurcella writing in the WSJ: Savers Stuck With Recovery Bill

The federal government is trying to pick the winners and the losers?

From ZeroHedge: "The Wasteland" - How Central Planning Broke All Markets... And What We Can Do To Fix Them

Broken markets in money, bonds, equities, and commodities?

 
At 8/14/2011 11:05 PM, Blogger RollCast said...

Ramesh Ponnuru of National Review has noted that BO has a floor of support that has not fallen below 40%-45%. This is going to be hard to overcome. We had better pick a challenger very carefully.

 
At 8/15/2011 2:26 PM, Blogger Bobby Caygeon said...

to have any shot at winning this election BO's approval rating is going to have to be 3-4% points north of 50 vs his current 39%(and dropping daily and you know those approval ratings are biased upward for him too). no incumbent has won reelection with an approval rating below 48%. in 2008 he won by only 2.5% with an unprecedented black and independent voting block. neither of those will be anywhere as strong and he is trailing in almost every swing state right now.

with his continued whining, his inability to actually govern, the falling and flailing economy, and his continued use of divisive race/gender/class warfare what would actually be a catalyst for his approval rating to ever increase? only one I can think of, and that is his announcing he is no longer running for reelection.

this is a dead man walking but the msm is trying hard to paint him the front runner just like they did last October with the dems. please someone from the left show me the blueprint of an Obama win.

the R's will EASILY win the presidency, the senate, and the house and will have a mandate to get this country back on the right path.

we will see if they can execute.

 

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