Saturday, August 06, 2011

Intrade Odds for Obama's Re-Election Drop to 52%

Intrade odds for the contract "Barack Obama to be re-elected in 2012" have fallen to 52.4% in the last few days, the lowest level yet this year (see chart above), and down about ten points in the last two months.

HT: Steve Bartin


At 8/06/2011 8:36 AM, Blogger Michael Hoff said...

How on earth is he above zero?

At 8/06/2011 9:20 AM, Blogger Paul said...

And now an S&P downgrade. C averag, baby!

At 8/06/2011 10:12 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

I have to get one of those "Downgrade Obama" bumper stickers.

A reduced probability of re-election for this disaster is the only good thing to come out of the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade.

At 8/06/2011 11:22 AM, OpenID Sprewell said...

I wonder how much of this is just based on the economy, so if the economy recovers, voters will stupidly give him credit for it and he recovers and gets reelected. We've been overdue for another tech boom for years now, and there are signs that it's revving up again. Who knows when it will finally hit, but one of my big worries has been that Obama rides it to reelection. The other big issue is who the Republicans run, and Bachmann, Romney, or Paul will lose to Obama, likely Pawlenty too.

At 8/06/2011 12:16 PM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

If unemployment is above 8.8% on election day, I'd say he's toast.

But if unemployment drops below 8.3%, he'll still have a good chance.

At 8/06/2011 12:18 PM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...


At 8/06/2011 2:00 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

This year I expect the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaw of victory.

A huge debacle may unfold--they may go for Rick Perry, only to have it come out that he needs to come out. Rock Hudson? He does sort of look like Rock Hudson.

How about a Bachmann-Palin ticket?

What make GOP contender would be willing to stick it out into Bachmann's No. 2 slot?

It will be fascinating year. Who knows? Maybe we will have a proposed amendment to the Constitution that creationism must be treated a science. I see the GOP going far right.

We will lucky if some guy with a funny mustache and involuntary arm spasms does not top the GOP ticket. It looks to be one of those years.

At 8/06/2011 3:47 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

Thank you for the link, Arbitrage.

This downgrade will folllow him into next year and the people on intrade are fully aware of the possible Republican candidates. A lot of people may be voting "anyone but Obama" next year.

Who knows. but, I can't see how the jobs data will improve considering the impact of increased regulation, increased harassment of firms by regulators and the risks and uncertainties and rising taxes resulting from Dudd-Frank and Obamacare.

The only lesson these politicians have learned from the 1930's is that economic problems of their creation are an excellent pretext for increasing their own power.

At 8/06/2011 6:30 PM, Blogger juandos said...


"He’s not going to be known as the first Black President, he’s going to known as the President who had a downgrade"...

At 8/06/2011 6:32 PM, Blogger Michael Meyers said...


At 8/06/2011 6:35 PM, Blogger Bobby Caygeon said...

I remember about 4-5 months prior to the November elections Intrade had the D's maintaining the House at like 60%+. Needless to say we all remember how that turned out. But, then again the MSM until maybe 1-2 months thought the D's would just consolidate more power (like our friend Benji). I know they don't have any credibility whatsoever (if they did Obama would have never made it to primary) but even the leftist sponsored MSM can't keep carrying this dirty water. I think.

At 8/07/2011 12:54 AM, Blogger Cabodog said...

With over 50% of the voting public on some type of entitlement, it's pretty much certain he'll be voted back in.

They're bribing us with our own money.

At 8/07/2011 6:20 AM, Blogger Larry G said...

entitlements or not... those without jobs... or even those with jobs but marginal ones they keep only because they must...

those folks ... will vote for someone else in a heartbeat if they thing that someone else have a viable plan to provide more jobs.

we say that folks with entitlements will vote for Obama.


but remember the other folks offer lower taxes as an incentive... unless of course you are not paying any and then they promise to raise your taxes... eh?

So... what is Romney, Bachman, Perry, offering as a better path forward than the current approach?

Will people vote into office - folks who say supply-side economics and de-regulation is the path forward?

At 8/07/2011 10:25 AM, Blogger Rich B said...

Now that's stimulus I can agree with!

At 8/07/2011 10:41 AM, Blogger Paul said...

"Will people vote into office - folks who say supply-side economics and de-regulation is the path forward?"

Maybe. By then they will have had a full term of the path backward.

At 8/07/2011 12:34 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"A lot of people may be voting "anyone but Obama" next year."

I did that last time, but it wasn't enough.

At 8/07/2011 6:56 PM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

cabodog: "With over 50% of the voting public on some type of entitlement, it's pretty much certain he'll be voted back in."

Seniors will vote as always. But I don't think that's true for a huge portion of the parasites who are working age yet still survive on government checks. The ones I know will either be too lazy to make the trip to the voting booth or else too drunk to find their way there.


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home