Intrade Odds for Obama's Re-Election Drop to 52%
HT: Steve Bartin
Posted 7:49 AM Post Link
17 Comments
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CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Saturday, August 06, 2011
HT: Steve Bartin
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
Previous Posts
- Lemonade Freedom Day: August 20
- Big Eight Computer Reported Huge Profits in Q2
- July Employment Report
- Markets in Everything: Cutting Cars in Half
- Amid All of the Bad News, a Few Positive Items
- June Seattle Existing Home Sales Highest in 4 Year...
- The Brokers with Hands on Their Faces Blog
- NY Fed Model: 1-in-125 Chance of 2012 Double-Dip
- The Jobless Recovery and the Education Gap, II
- More Good News About the Shale Gas Revolution
17 Comments:
How on earth is he above zero?
And now an S&P downgrade. C averag, baby!
I have to get one of those "Downgrade Obama" bumper stickers.
A reduced probability of re-election for this disaster is the only good thing to come out of the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade.
I wonder how much of this is just based on the economy, so if the economy recovers, voters will stupidly give him credit for it and he recovers and gets reelected. We've been overdue for another tech boom for years now, and there are signs that it's revving up again. Who knows when it will finally hit, but one of my big worries has been that Obama rides it to reelection. The other big issue is who the Republicans run, and Bachmann, Romney, or Paul will lose to Obama, likely Pawlenty too.
If unemployment is above 8.8% on election day, I'd say he's toast.
But if unemployment drops below 8.3%, he'll still have a good chance.
Methinks,
http://www.theobamadowngrade.com/
This year I expect the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaw of victory.
A huge debacle may unfold--they may go for Rick Perry, only to have it come out that he needs to come out. Rock Hudson? He does sort of look like Rock Hudson.
How about a Bachmann-Palin ticket?
What make GOP contender would be willing to stick it out into Bachmann's No. 2 slot?
It will be fascinating year. Who knows? Maybe we will have a proposed amendment to the Constitution that creationism must be treated a science. I see the GOP going far right.
We will lucky if some guy with a funny mustache and involuntary arm spasms does not top the GOP ticket. It looks to be one of those years.
Thank you for the link, Arbitrage.
This downgrade will folllow him into next year and the people on intrade are fully aware of the possible Republican candidates. A lot of people may be voting "anyone but Obama" next year.
Who knows. but, I can't see how the jobs data will improve considering the impact of increased regulation, increased harassment of firms by regulators and the risks and uncertainties and rising taxes resulting from Dudd-Frank and Obamacare.
The only lesson these politicians have learned from the 1930's is that economic problems of their creation are an excellent pretext for increasing their own power.
SMALL BUSINESSWOMAN RIPS OBAMA AND CALLS ON HIM TO APOLOGIZE TO AMERICA
"He’s not going to be known as the first Black President, he’s going to known as the President who had a downgrade"...
YAHOO! :)
I remember about 4-5 months prior to the November elections Intrade had the D's maintaining the House at like 60%+. Needless to say we all remember how that turned out. But, then again the MSM until maybe 1-2 months thought the D's would just consolidate more power (like our friend Benji). I know they don't have any credibility whatsoever (if they did Obama would have never made it to primary) but even the leftist sponsored MSM can't keep carrying this dirty water. I think.
With over 50% of the voting public on some type of entitlement, it's pretty much certain he'll be voted back in.
They're bribing us with our own money.
entitlements or not... those without jobs... or even those with jobs but marginal ones they keep only because they must...
those folks ... will vote for someone else in a heartbeat if they thing that someone else have a viable plan to provide more jobs.
we say that folks with entitlements will vote for Obama.
Maybe.
but remember the other folks offer lower taxes as an incentive... unless of course you are not paying any and then they promise to raise your taxes... eh?
So... what is Romney, Bachman, Perry, offering as a better path forward than the current approach?
Will people vote into office - folks who say supply-side economics and de-regulation is the path forward?
Now that's stimulus I can agree with!
"Will people vote into office - folks who say supply-side economics and de-regulation is the path forward?"
Maybe. By then they will have had a full term of the path backward.
"A lot of people may be voting "anyone but Obama" next year."
I did that last time, but it wasn't enough.
cabodog: "With over 50% of the voting public on some type of entitlement, it's pretty much certain he'll be voted back in."
Seniors will vote as always. But I don't think that's true for a huge portion of the parasites who are working age yet still survive on government checks. The ones I know will either be too lazy to make the trip to the voting booth or else too drunk to find their way there.
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