Saturday, July 23, 2011

Intrade Odds for Obama Lowest Since Jan. 2

Intrade odds for Obama to be re-elected have been trending downward since late February and now at 55.6%, the lowest since January 2 of this year.  

HT: Steve Bartin

9 Comments:

At 7/23/2011 11:12 PM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

A lot of factors at work; but Obama's refusal to produce a specific plan to deal with the budget deficit isn't helping matters.

 
At 7/24/2011 12:40 PM, Blogger cluemeister said...

Of course if the Republicans bail him out by proposing a budget deal with increased taxes, his numbers will go up again. Let's hope the Republicans let Obama suffer with his spending binges.

 
At 7/24/2011 3:12 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

I expect the GOP will swing hard right in 2012 and thus lose.

This happens to out of power partiesm that go beat bad four years earlier. The Dems ran McGovern in 1976. The GOPs Goldwater in 1964.

I expect Michelle Bachmann to be the GOP candidate for 2012.

After losing, will Perry stick it out into Bachmann's No. 2 slot? Will he enter the rear end of her ticket (in order to have a shot at 2016)?

If Perry can control his ego, and shove his manhood aside to enter the wide-open rear end of Bachmann's ticket, to be fervently in her No. 2 slot, then I think Perry will able to run effectively in 2016.

Does Perry also run for office carrying a dum-dum loaded Ruger .380 with laser-sighting?

If so, my advice: Do not look at him funny, and no jokes about him be gay.

 
At 7/24/2011 3:51 PM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

Cluemeister,

Problem is, I think there’ll be a knee-jerk reaction to blame the Republicans if there’s any sort of government shutdown.

I think very few people will actually look at the details of what the two sides are offering…
… if there’s a government shutdown, it must be because of those stubborn Republicans.

 
At 7/24/2011 3:56 PM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

Benjamin @ 3:12

Interesting analysis there.

But I think Perry wins more states than Bachmann in the primaries.

And if Bachmann does win the nomination, Obama will easily beat her.

 
At 7/24/2011 5:55 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Arb-

Perry will also have to answer questions if he is best friends with Mr. Huffington.

Anybody who gets scared by a coyote looking at him might be a bit effeminate.

 
At 7/24/2011 9:15 PM, Blogger cluemeister said...

Arbitrage,

This is not 1994. We have the internet, talk radio, and alternative news sources. The MSM is already trying to pin this situation on the Republicans. But if you look at Rasmussen today, Obama's negatives are near an all time high. The voters aren't buying it.

Raising taxes is the stupidest, most suicidal political move the Republicans could make.

Cut the one time stimulus spending (which has now become part of the regular spending), and you're back to 2008 spending levels with $800 billion in one year savings.

 
At 7/24/2011 10:41 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

the Republicans say we have a spending problem not a revenue problem but, get this, It's up to Obama to prove their point!

this is how bizarre things have become.

If the Republicans say we have a spending problem then when in the
H E L L is THEIR PROPOSAL?

We take in about 1.2 trillion in personal and corporate income taxes... and we are spending 1.5 trillion MORE THAN THAT.

If you think we can fix this by cuts only - then show me how.

This is what Obama is basically saying.

"show me YOUR CUTS in a "cut only" scenario.

We are spending 1.5 trillion more every year than we are taking in.

If you think we can cut 1.5 trillion worth of spending - fine - show me how.

 
At 7/25/2011 11:11 AM, OpenID melanerpes said...

Obama announced death of bin Laden in the late evening of May 1, 2011. The market reacted impulsively.

 

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